International Journal of Applied Operational Research
ژورنال بین المللی پژوهش عملیاتی
International Journal of Applied Operational Research - An Open Access Journal
Basic Sciences
http://ijorlu.liau.ac.ir
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admin
2251-6867
2251-9432
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jalali
1396
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gregorian
2017
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Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting Electricity Consumption
تخصصي
Special
پژوهشي
Research
<p dir="RTL" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed; direction: rtl;"><font color="#000000"><span b="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-bidi-language:="" style="line-height: 115%; font-family: ">دقت پیشبینی مصرف برق در آینده بهمنظور مدیریت تولید برق بسیار مهم است. ازآنجاکه ذخیرهسازی انرژی الکتریکی بسیار دشوار است، پیشبینی قابلاعتماد و دقیق از مصرف برق ضروری است. رویکردهای مختلفی برای این منظور مورداستفاده قرارگرفته است. در این مقاله مدل خاکستری </span><span b="" dir="LTR" font-size:="" mso-ascii-theme-font:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-theme-font:="" new="" style="line-height: 115%; font-family: " times="">GM(1,1) </span><span .="" b="" dir="LTR" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-ascii-theme-font:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" mso-hansi-theme-font:="" new="" span="" style="line-height: 115%; font-family: " times=""> نسبت به مدلسازی و پیشبینی بهتر عمل میکند.</span></font></p>
Accurate prediction of the future electricity consumption is crucial for production electricity management. Since the storage of electrical energy is very difficult, reliable and accurate prediction of power consumption is important. Different approaches for this purpose were used. In this paper, Grey model (1,1) based on grey system theory has been used for forecasting results. Annual electricity consumption and forecasting data in Mazandaran were used as our case study. Root mean squared error, Mean absolute error and Mean of average percentage error accuracy testing results show that GM(1,1) is outperformed compared with model fitting and model forecasting.
Accuracy, Grey system theory, Forecasting, GM(1,1) model, DGM(2,1) model.
1
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http://ijorlu.liau.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-450-1&slc_lang=en&sid=1
D.
Darvishi Salokolaei
darvishidavood@yahoo.com
10031947532846001066
10031947532846001066
Yes
Department of Mathematics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
P.
Babaei
p.babaeivalohi@gmail.com
10031947532846001067
10031947532846001067
No
Department of Mathematics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
S.
Liu
sfliu@nuaa.edu.cn
10031947532846001068
10031947532846001068
No
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics