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A Monte Carlo simulation to identify the effect of delays in construction project scheduling
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M. Abolghasemian   , M. R. Nasiri Janagha , M. Vaseei , A. Pourghader Chobar , U. M. Modibbo |
| Department of Management, Sohrevardi Higher Education Institute, Qazvin, Iran |
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Abstract: (337 Views) |
Construction projects are inherently complex and subject to various uncertainties and delays that can significantly impact their schedule and overall success. Delays in construction projects can arise from a multitude of factors such as weather conditions, material shortages, labor issues, or unexpected design changes. These delays not only disrupt the planned timeline but can also lead to cost overruns and conflicts among project stakeholders. An efficient construction industry is a prerequisite for the development of the construction process. In this regard, this paper aims to identify the most common, severe, and important causes of schedule delay and its effect on construction projects. Therefore, the main contribution of current study offers a systematic approach to assessing and managing risks associated with delays in construction projects. By quantifying the likelihood of different delay scenarios, project managers can make informed decisions to mitigate risks and optimize scheduling strategies. The main objective during the construction phases is to complete the project on time and within the budget and meet the set quality requirements and other specifications simultaneously. For this purpose, a framework to identify and prioritize delays and critical activities is proposed in current study and an attempt is made to implement it using the framework introduced in a real case study on the freeway projects of Iran. Accordingly, first, several delays known in free construction projects were considered using the available theoretical resources, they were then subjected to the judgment of experts employing the Delphi technique so 14 delays were identified in the first round of implementing the Delphi technique. Subsequently, a schedule was designed for freeway projects consisting of 13 activities. In the continuation of this research, a questionnaire was prepared to collect information, and 48 answer sheets were carefully completed and received by experts. Then, by running the second round of Delphi, five critical delays were selected among the identified delays, and the statistical delay functions of each of them were estimated using Decision Tools software. Then, by designing 19 scenarios, the effect of each of the critical delays in the activities was reported based on the designed scenarios. Also, for further analysis, nine and five scenarios were designed based on the most important delay factors on critical activities and two important activities, respectively; and using the PERT technique, the certain value of increase in activity time was calculated based on different probabilities. According to the reported PERT, the scenarios were prioritized in each step.
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| Keywords: Delay, Critical Activity, Scenario, Delphi Technique, PERT Technique |
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Full-Text [PDF 715 kb]
(174 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2023/12/15 | Accepted: 2024/02/10
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